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What We Are Watching
Taking a respite from watching the fundamentals today. The US’s story is currently hinging on Friday’s Non Farm Payrolls. Spain is toast with German/Spain yield spreads hitting all time Euro era highs but Forex traders appear to waiting to see if there is an IMF/ECB move. And last, Greece polls keep swing as regards to who will with that country’s relection.
With that in mind we figured we would focus on the technicals today.
Gapped higher to start the week on weekend polls that Greece’s pro-bailout party had a nice lead. However, as you can see from the chart below, the EURUSD closed its gap in afternoon trading yesterday, but did manage to find support at 1.2500, just above last week’s lows. With the downward bias intact, and the lack of any carry through momentum yesterday, the pair continues to be a sell on the strength candidate. Possible entries include shorting at today’s high of 1.2575 with stops at 1.2605, or alternatively selling closer to 1.2600 with exits if 1.2630 resistance gets taken. Targets at 1.2510 with another breach of 1.2500 looking to trigger more selling pressure and a possible move to 1.2400.
Intraday Support/Resistance 1.2500/1.2630
The GBPUSD is showing some increasing demand after its recent selloff. However, until it can trade and close above 1.5730 resistance (see chart) the pair will be vulnerable to further selling. As such, we wouldn’t be too quick about jumping on the long side until it establishes further signs of building rising support.
Intraday Support/Resistance 1.5625/1.5730
The USDJPY is trading within a week long triangle formation as we near Friday’s US NFP number. While trading out of a triangle can often trigger a breakout move in the direction of the break out of the triangle, we aren’t expecting one this time. This is due to Friday’s results which we expect to be the next big catalyst in the USDJPY. As such, our preference would be to fade any moves out of the Triangle and would be buyers just above 79.00 or sellers just below 80.00.
Intraday Support/Resistance 79.30/79.80